Skepticism and delusion, shunning from reality

By Ephrem Madebo

Most Ethiopians do not agree on a single path that delivers them from tyranny, many might not even have the same opinion on the type of government system that Ethiopia should have after D-Day. Most Ethiopians believe that Ethiopia is their undisputed mother; however, some of her children fail to accept her mother ship. A hand full of Ethiopians from all walks of life believe that Ethiopia is on the right path and substantiate their claim by quoting the nominal economic growth of the last two decades. In fact, some of them are innocent or naive; they try to rationalize Ethiopia’s growth by a mere numeric growth of high rise buildings in Addis Ababa. I personally, treasure disagreement and believe it is the source of development, but only when disagreements are avoided through dialogues, and when disagreement enhances the collective material and moral understanding of society. After the May 2005 election, the disagreement within and between the opposition camp has taken a heavy toll on the effort of the Ethiopian people to build a democratic society. Instead of attacking our common enemy, we pulled the trigger at each other losing every battle. I guess, it is about time to stop hallucinating and wake up, for no self-fighting group has won a war, and no war has been won after losing all battles.

The pre-election political process, the post-election political turbulence, and in general, the May 2005 election has radically revolutionized the concept of democracy in Ethiopia. For many generations, Ethiopians thought that political power is a gift from above; today, most Ethiopians believe that this gift [political power] is intended for them. Such a swift and pragmatic shift has changed the political reality of Ethiopia, and has opened a new political era of relative certainty. For many centuries the Ethiopian political system rested on three overlapping bases, the Church, the throne, and the nobility. Political dualism was unthinkable as the Church preached one religion, one country and one king. The monarchy and its ecclesiastical system might have been gone for long, but its ideology is still lingering in the mind of some prominent Ethiopians. These feudal minded people might be few in number, but their toxic behaviour and divisive agenda has contaminated every party and political organization of the last thirty years.

Today, many Ethiopians agree that there should be no peripheral group of people who should be side-lined from the national decision making process, as there should be no single person or group of people ordained to be rulers, i.e., many Ethiopians believe that they are the sole source of political power, and think that there are no distinguished citizens whose divine karma is to rule. Thanks to the May 2005 election and to the extrapolative people of Ethiopia, the era of the government of the few is gone. The irreversible verdict of the May 2005 election was clear and precise. To the leaders of the opposition, the message was unity i.e., get united, or disbanded. To the TPLF regime, the overt message was "timeout"! Unfortunately, it seems that the two addressees have gone deaf on the Ethiopian people.

In July and August 2005, the Ethiopian opposition was on the driver seat of the wagon; but latter, as August gave its way to September and as the Ethiopian winter retreated, so did the opposition. Internal Power struggle, political immaturity, and lack of clear path among the opposition slowed down the popular movement, and gave momentum to the otherwise dying regime. Obviously, after the May 2005 election, the behaviour of Meles was heartless, and his acts were diabolic. However, such acts of desperation were never unforeseen, especially to those who understood the anatomy of the TPLF gangs. So, instead of rising to the occasion, why did the opposition show signs of division and crumble at the most critical moment of the struggle? I’ve great appreciation to all opposition leaders who day in and day out have to put up with inside and outside pressure and character assassination. I respect and value their endless effort to our country. For the most part, my criticism is aimed not at what they did, but at what they didn’t do. In the last 20 years, the Ethiopian opposition has passed through a myriad of alliances and coalitions. I do believe the opposition had ample time to rectify its shortcomings and deliver the long due unified leadership to the struggle of the Ethiopian people.

Today, the opposition camp is plagued by self made problems, lacks visionary leaders, and moves haphazardly with no clear line of attack. Every party, or political organization is entangled with contradictory personal agendas. UEDF is cracked into domestic and "Diaspora" UEDF. CUDP is passing through a life saving surgery. The "domestic UEDF" has inaudibly transformed itself into a loyal opposition, and only God knows where the "Diaspora" UEDF is headed for! In this time of vagueness and volatility, who will lead the popular movement, or who will ignite the match and start the fire that devours Meles and company? Definitely, CUDP can’t ignite the match because as of now its match box is empty. The loyal opposition might not be willing to ignite the match because its interest is to conciliate with Meles by keeping the match box intact. The "Diaspora" UEDF seems to not even have the match box. So who will lead the Ethiopian people? When does the opposition understand that using a "finger to the wind" approach to leadership is an uphill battle that doesn't stand a great chance of winning?

Today, once again the opposition camp is battered by a new wave of endemic , an endemic that has the potential to cripple the popular movement for a good while. For over a year, Kinjit’s inability to make major decisions was blamed on the absence of its seasoned leaders. Today, the free leaders of Kinjit are making a horrifying decision, a decision that takes public pressure off the TPLF regime and makes conditions worse on the jailed leaders. One year ago, Kinjit mobilized its supporters for demonstrations, they responded and died by the hundreds, lifting up the trademark of Kinjit [V]. In August and September 2005, members of Kinjit consulted their MPs to boycott the parliament, they were heard. When they boycotted the parliament, some of them were in a work tour in Europe [Dr. Berhanu] and in USA [Eng. Hailu], but they went back to Ethiopia knowing what they would get. Today, these unwavering leaders are in jail, and hundreds of their supporters are dead. The sad thing is that every foundation built by the blood of these heroes is being bulldozed by the gluttons of Washington DC. At this critical time of our history, our Washingtonian brothers made a decision as awful as ‘Washington’. I’m sure if the jailed leaders of Kinjit find out what is going on in Washington, DC; they would definitely make a unanimous decision to stay where they are. I have question to my Washington brothers. Is your recent disgraceful divisive action a response to Dr. Berhanu’s literature marvel? If it is, who is right? You or him? If you think you are right, you are proving him guilty much faster than Meles’s kangaroo court.

As divisive as it is, I’m afraid if the evolution of the current drama is allowed to continue, CUDP’s continued existence as a single party will be dubious. In fact, CUDP can’t continue to be a leading political organization if it expects total leadership from its jailed leaders. Leadership is all about making tough decisions, and decision making requires information that is current and reliable. So how can the jailed leaders make informed decision, and for how long does CUDP hover before it replaces its jailed leaders? We all know that the jailed leaders are intellectually bright, wise, seasoned and veteran politicians. The question is; should it take us 365 days to replace them? Is our pool of full-grown leaders taht desiccated? All in all, shouldn’t CUDP make a strategic move that invigorates its leadership and reinforces its grass roots movement. CUDP and its supporters need to be aware of that the primary objective of the opposition is not to be consumed for the release of jailed opposition leaders. Please don’t quote me wrong! We sure need to fight for the release of our leaders, however, our primary objective is to continue the struggle and free the Ethiopian people from the totalitarian regime of Meles. For three decades, ANC’s David Bopape was never allowed to meet with more than two people at a time, Nelson Mandela and Walter Sisulu were jailed for decades, but all these did not cripple ANC from fighting the apartheid regime and ultimately defeat it.

From July 2005 until October 2006, the ruling minority party [TPLF] has made a number of strategic moves by constantly repositioning itself to stay in power for many more years. What did the opposition do? Or what is it planning to do? Does the opposition know that failing to plan is planning to fail? Yes, CUDP’s leaders are in jail, but this should never be an excuse for the sloppy performance of CUDP. A party that claims to have a strategic plan beyond the TPLF regime should not stay in a partial state of paralysis from October to October just because its leaders are in jail. Let me take the current leaders of CUDP by their own words- "Kinjit is a civilized politics" Is it really? Where is its wheel of civilization? Be it quantum or substantial, isn’t civilization always a forward leap? To be honest, today, the "civilized politics" of Kinjit is way behind from where it was 18 months ago! Kinjit was such a flamboyant party whose charismatic leaders and their slogans captivated millions of Ethiopians just 18 months ago. In fact, it is one of the few parties that enjoys popular mandate. I beg rather plead Kinjit to reincarnate itself and use its mandate to fight for its constituency.

In the last one year, the Ethiopian opposition has taken many steps; in my opinion, the formation of AFD was the most hopeful of all the steps. As I argued in the past, a life saving capsule is not encapsulated in AFD, but for the ailing weak popular struggle, AFD would have been a healing prescription. Does AFD save life? – No! Is it a solution to Ethiopia’s problems? - may be not. Can AFD be used as a steppingstone to a greater goal? – Why not? UEDF is one of the most boisterous whimper against AFD, yet UEDF is the very political organization that started underground dialogue with OLF that eventually opened the way for the formation of AFD. Was it too much for the leaders of UEDF to be part of a group that included OLF and other liberation fronts? Do the leaders of UEDF understand that the so called liberation fronts are fighting to secede from the very country that UEDF fights to keep united? To be frank, when it comes to unity, I always stand by the side of UEDF. But, I prefer to fight the enemies of unity in a civilized way. Though not a signatory, UEDF was among the participants of the Utrecht conference, in my opinion, UEDF blew a golden chance of forging a much stronger alliance when it myopically decided to walk away from the Utrecht accord. I think the presence of UEDF in AFD would have been an advantage to the forces of unity. I do believe UEDF could have played a much better role of changing the composition of AFD from inside than drifting around North America and crying foul. Let me temporarily agree with UEDF and assume that its decision to walk out of the accord was good for Ethiopia. But, what did UEDF do ever since? Or what is the net contribution of UEDF to our political development in the last one year and half?

In the last 15 years, the Ethiopian political forum entertained a plethora of alliances such as EDFU (ede-haq), CAFPDE (Amarach hayloch), UEDF, CUD, and the most recent AFD. Any of these alliances or parties came in to existence without being condemned and facing undue criticism, and most of the alliances fell apart because they lacked a contributing working environment and faced sturdy opposition. What is that keeps the opposition from forging a united front? Is it power struggle? Personal agenda? Egotism? Is there an external power that keeps us from uniting, or are we just a kind of people who agreed to not agree? Do we know how hard our enemy works to stay in power [inside & outside]? Do we really know how much pain and suffering our people have to endure every time PM Meles breathes an air of serenity? When the suffering of our people is measured by seconds, why should it take us decades to get united and free our people? When TPLF, OLF,SLF and what ever "LFs" fought Colonel Mengistu’s regime, they stood together and fought with supreme tenacity. The TPLF bandits fought hard for the people they claim to represent. Our opposition, instead of fighting for the people it represents, it tussles over the people it represents. I don’t care how popular and resourceful we are, if we need to topple TPLF, we need to be more disciplined, more united, have a much better character, and fight with superb tenacity. Such an amorphous and muddled struggle will not take us to victory, no matter how closely Knotted we are to the people.

Although often unacknowledged, how we define our plan for tomorrow is so crucial, and its role in putting together a winning strategy is remarkably significant. Thus, despite our discord, or party loyalty, developing the culture of collective definition of problems and solutions will significantly enhance our effort for peace. We are a proud nation of over 3000 years of history, but we should acknowledge that there is a shameful part of this history- we were a sleeping giant! Well, today, we’re not sleeping, but we’re not doing anything better either. A country and its people are like a lever and a fulcrum; they can only function if they are both present. Just as a lever cannot be used to move anything unless there is a fulcrum to support the lever, people cannot exist if they have no country. So if we really love our country, we should save her from perishing for we cease to exist without her. Remember, no matter how much we love our country, and no matter how hard we fight for the good cause of our people, we will always be wedged at the far side of victory if we fail to unite and coordinate our efforts.

The Ethiopian opposition parties are not limited to UEDF & CUDP, my criticism is focused on the two because they are the only alliances who played a noticeable role and won significant amount of votes in the May 2005 election. I preferred not to mention the role of Liberation fronts because as their name indicates, the role of LFs is limited to the ethnic groups they claim to represent. However, I want to appreciate the leaders of OLF who decided to work with other opposition parties after decades of unhelpful lonely journey. As the dust settles, I expect more rationality, more compromising, and less stiffness from OLF.

Eventually, I do believe CUDP survives the surgical procedures it is going through and renews its covenant with the Ethiopian people. I do believe the matured leaders of UEDF will resume their dialogue with all forces that have stake in Ethiopia and change the political momentum in favour of the opposition. I have the following message for UEDF and CUDP: The Ethiopian people are not anymore interested in your tittle-tattle, and baseless hearsay accusation. You both are invaluable treasures of Ethiopia. Neither of you have the right to treat yourself as the sole saviour of Ethiopia. There is no doubt that Ethiopia benefits from your individual effort; but in the face of fortified Agazes, our country benefits more from the synergism that occurs when your two parties interact congruently. Be careful, you are measured by what you do and by what you fail to do. Finally, I have a question for UEDF and CUDP – How close, or how far is the day we see you in the same alliance with other opposition entities? If I throw this question to the Ethiopian people, their natural answer is today! What about yours? Should it be different? It shouldn’t!

The key to building a free society lies in creating a durable set of democratic institutions - some public, some private - that encourage "Representative Democracy" as well as economic openness for long periods of time. This historic responsibility is not the task of few people; it is not even a task to be completed by one generation. Our grandfathers/mothers made us proud Africans by breaking the backbone of Italian colonialism. Our fathers/mothers lived in the darkness of the two [feudal, military] consecutive authoritarian regimes, but they educated us and enabled us to perceive the anatomy of evil. Dealing with the forces of evil is the responsibility of this generation. Our children should be left to focus on agriculture, medicine, economics, and engineering. I usually take my son to G. Washington, T. Jefferson, A. Lincoln, and FDR memorials, and take myself back in time to give respect to what these heroes did to their country. Our country Ethiopia needs heroes like Jefferson and Lincoln who burn like a candle to give light to others. When he gets old, I hope, my son takes his children to memorials, but to a different memorial; to a memorial of champion Ethiopians!

Size of Ethiopian Population in the United States

By Fikru Helebo

One of the big news items of the day in the United States is about the US surpassing the 300 million mark in population count. This figure is a statistical projection and not the actual count of people who reside in the US. This got me thinking about the size of the Ethiopian population in the US. How large is it? That depends on whom you ask.

An Ethiopian would probably estimate the Ethiopian population in the US to be any where from 200,000 to 300,000. The estimate from an expert in the US Census Bureau, on the other hand, will probably be a lot lower than that. According to the last US census in 2000, the estimated number of people in the US who were born in Ethiopia was 69,530. This figure does not include those persons who were born in the US. I suppose most Ethiopians in the US will dispute this figure as being low.

I do not know what formula the US Census Bureau used to come up with a number like the one above, but I am pretty sure the Bureau used the raw data that it collected from the "long form" that it sent out to about one sixth of US households in the last census to arrive at that number. The accuracy of the Ethiopian population estimate in the US depends on the diligence of members of the Ethiopian community in the US who received the long form in the 2000 census. If every member of the Ethiopian community (of all ethnic backgrounds) wrote down "Ethiopia" as his/her answer to question #12 (Where was this person born?) in the 2000 census, then the 69,530 figure is a statistically accurate figure. If that was not the case, which is quite likely, then the 69,530 figure can not be relied upon.

If the Ethiopian community in the US want their numbers to be reflected fairly in the next census, which is scheduled to take place in 2010, then we need to educate our community about the benefits that can be derived from a count that is as accurate as possible. It will be hard to convice the newer immigrants amongst us about these benefits, but we need to inform them that information collected in the US census is confidential and will remain so for the next 72 years and they should fill out the questionairre as accurately as possible. The census is only four years from now and this is not the time to slouch.

Update (03/2010): Revisiting Size of Ethiopian Population in the US

October 10, 2005: A Sad Day to Remember

By Fikru Helebo

October 10, 2005 will be remembered as a dark day in the annals of Ethiopian history. A year ago on this day "electees" of the highly disputed parliamentary elections of May 15, 2005 took their seats in the House of Peoples' Representatives in Addis Ababa, thus setting the stage for one of the most repressive periods in modern Ethiopian history.

A day earlier, on October 9 2005, the main opposition grouping, the CUD, presented eight preconditions for joining parliament, a parliament which resulted from an election that most Ethiopians considered to be neither free nor fair. Sadly, CUD's preconditions were flatly rejected by Meles Zenawi, the head of the Tigrean ruling oligarchy that has ruled Ethiopia since 1991.

CUD's reasonable offer for compromise may have been the last opportunity for the Tigrean clique to begin to redeem themselves from the harm they have done to the Ethiopian people and nation. Now, a full year removed from that infamous day, the likelihood of a compromise between the Tigrean clique and the opposition is highly unlikely. Highly unlikely also is the chance of the Tigrean clique ever getting the benefit of the doubt from the Ethiopian people.

A year ago today I thought there was still a window of opportunity left for a compromise. But my hope for a compromise quickly faded a week later when I learned that the person whom I thought would serve as a bridge between the CUD and the Tigrean clique, Beyene Petros of the UEDF camp, had abdicated his leadership responsibility and was, in fact, secretly wishing for the dismemberment of the CUD camp.

Beyene has gotten his wish to some extent -- the CUD has been weakened as an organization. CUD's entire pre-election leadership is in jail and it is suffering from a leadership vacuum. In spite of its weaknesses, however, the CUD is now more popular than it was before the election. Beyene, on the other hand, has managed to transform himself from one of the most beloved politicians in the country before the election into one of the most hated ones.

Beyene claimed that he joined parliament not out of principle but as a tactical move to save the livelihood of his party while at the same time continuing the negotiattions on the outstanding issues of the May 2005 elections. So far, he has nothing to show on both counts and he will probably never have anything to show in the future. His party, the SEPDC, is now a former shadow of itself, at best, and "waging" a parliamentary struggle has not made any difference in solving the outstanding issues of the elections. On the contrary, his conscious choice to abondon his opposition colleagues has made things a lot more worse!

October 10th is a sad day, indeed, and the past year has been a difficult year for all those who would like to see Ethiopia avoid the path to self-destruction she has been on. But all is not lost. In fact, the odds of getting rid of the Tigrean oligarchy out of power through the ballot are increasing by the day. The reputation the Tigrean clique had carefully cultivated in western capitals of being progressive has been dealt a severe blow as a result of its own miscalculations, and any way you look at it, this is a dying regime whose prospects to survive beyond the next four years is in serious doubt.

Another positive news is that the OLF seems to have finally realized that its agenda for a separate homeland for Oromos is not going any where and has recently taken steps to coordinate its efforts with other pan-Ethiopianist opposition groups. There is no mistaking that the result of the May 2005 elections and events which transpired since then have affected OLF's thinking on the role it wants to play in the Ethiopian political discourse. Pan-Ethiopian political groupings have the responsibility to nurture this positive move by OLF in addition to coordinating efforts amongst themselves.

"Friends Don't Let Friends Commit Human Rights Abuses"

By Fikru Helebo

The above were the words of Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), sponsor of HR 5680, during his fact-finding trip to Ethiopia in August of 2005 when he was asked by IRIN news service about what his message to the political leaders of the Unites States will be upon his return to the US. I am sure Rep. Smith communicated his message to those US officials he had the opportunity to brief about what he observed in Ethiopia. Rep. Smith met Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian dictator, on this trip and told him to "...ease up on the opposition. Stop following them, stop intimidating individuals who are supporters [of the opposition]." Obviously, his advise was not heeded by Meles. That was expected of him! He has killed and terrorized many times before to get to where he is. What was not expected was the response of US officials to Mr. Smith's advise. Unfortunately, US political leaders who were in a position to exert pressure on Meles failed to do so, and as a result, Meles got emboldened and repeated the massacre of June 2005 in November 2005, only on a much bigger scale, thus bringing the nascent democratic process in Ethiopia to a screeching halt!

If Condolezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, and her assistant for Africa, Jendayi Fraser, were asked today "What did they do to pressure Meles to be civilized and compromise with the opposition between August and November 2005?", it is very likely that they would answer the question in a diplomatic language, such as: "the United States Government did everything possible to put pressure to bear on the Ethiopian Government." I am not trying to pick on Rice and Fraser, but they have miserably failed Ethiopians in their time of need. To be fair to them, however, there are other players in the US government, such as the Pentagon and the US intelligence service communities, who have a say in what US foreign policy towards Ethiopia is and, therefore, officials in those other government departments are also equally to blame for the failure US policy.

Judging from the muted reaction of the US government to the massacre of November 2005, it is reasonable to conclude that US government officials who were/are responsible for making policy on Ethiopia were asleep at the wheel and failed to make an effective use of United States' political and economic leverage on the Ethiopian Government so that it respects the fundamental right of the Ethiopian people to protest the outcome of the May 2005 elections in peaceful ways, including boycotts and demonstrations. This muted US reaction may seem a mystery right now, but it won't be a mystery forever, and why US policy makers failed to make a difference in Ethiopia in the post-May 2005 election era will become apparent in due time, perhaps some time after a new adminstration takes office.

This is not the first time US officials have bungled American policy towards Ethiopia. In another tumultuous time in Ethiopian history, as these recently declassified notes of US officials from the Nixon and Ford administration officials testify, US officials were consistently farther behind events in Ethiopia to adequetely effect changes in Ethiopia, both for the benefit of the Ethiopian people who were neglected by their own government, which was considered a solid US ally at the time, and for the sake of US interests in the Horn of Africa region. I would not be surprised if 30 years or so from now, when the notes of the current US officials are declassified, we will know for sure that they failed to grasp the level of discontent among Ethiopians of the Meles regime and turned a blind eye as a dictator, whom they think is a friend of the US, commit horrific human right abuses right under their noses, kill the aspirations of millions of Ethiopians and thereby undermine United States' long term interests in the region.

Supporting HR 5680

Here is a link to an article on Ethiomedia where you can get some sound advice on how you can continue to support HR 5680. Please, by no means, do not consider your efforts to support HR 5680 the end of your engagement with your elected representatives.

And, here is an article ("Lobbyists' Power Wanes as Election Day Nears") from washingtonpost.com which sheds light on the challenges of advocating for a legislation, such as HR 5680, in the United States Congress in this fiercely contested mid-term election year. Even lobbyists for special interest causes that are popular with most Republican lawmakers are having a tough time getting their bills passed this year!

Realistically speaking, it looks like that the chances of HR 5680 being brought to the house floor for a vote next week is very slim. But, whatever happens next week, it will not be the end of the road for Ethiopian Human Rights and democracy advocacy. The spirit of HR 5680 will live on as long as tyranny and injustice continue to be the norm in Ethiopia.

Let's Give HR 5680 the Support it Deserves

By Fikru Helebo

I was having a conversation last night with a friend about the fate of HR 5680, the legislation that is currently making its way in the United States House of Representatives, which is designed to advance the cause of Human Rights and democracy in Ethiopia, and my friend asked me what are the chances of the bill getting passed in the House. I commented to my friend, with no hesitation I might add, that the bill has a pretty good chance of passing in the House with the required two thirds of the votes and that, if the bill faces trouble, it may be in the US Senate where the rules are more stringent and allow for a single senator to hold and kill a legislation.

And then I got up this morning and saw this article on Ethiomedia which stated that HR 5680 is in danger being killed in the House of Representatives because the Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, is not allowing it to come to the floor of the House for a vote as a result of a lobbying effort by the Meles regime. So much for my prognostication and I apologize for misleading my friend! I guess this means that we all need to work very hard to make this bill a reality. If we do not work hard and/or the Addis Ababa regime succeeds in killing the bill despite our efforts, that will not be the end of the world for the advancement of democracy in Ethiopia but it will sure make it more difficult. So, compatriots, let's roll and give HR 5680 the support it deserves and let the chips fall where they may. Let's not disappoint those who are paying a heavy price in the cause of freedom and democracy in Ethiopia.

Let's us all contact our representatives in the US House and tell them that this bill will not only help advance forward the cause of freedom and democracy in Ethiopia, but it will also put the United States' interest in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region on a much more solid footing. So far the US has been mainly giving lip service to the advancement of freedom and democracy in Ethiopia and it is about time for a change. Passage of HR 5680 will herald a clear shift in US policy in the region and will express, in no uncertain terms, that the United States government is on the side of the people of Ethiopia who are still yearning for a representative form of government.

Here is how to contact your representatives in Congress. All you need to do is enter your state and your zip code and the web site tells you who your represetative is. And after that just enter the required fields and click on the "continue" button and write your representative. You may want to follow up your email with a phone call a few days later. You can find the phone number to call your representative by locating his/her name here.

If you are a registered voter in your district, please remind your representative that whom you vote for in this election cycle will depend on what happens to HR 5680 in the next few weeks. I am not a proponent of a single-issue voter, but there are times when a single issue is so important to voters that they must set aside ideological or party affiliations once in a while and give their votes for the candidate that supports their cause. For the Ethiopian-American voter this single issue is the support for Human Rights and democracy in our country of birth and what our respective representatives in the United States Congress do to help pass HR 5680 should determine whether we vote for or against our representatives in the coming mid-term elections in November.

Urgent Appeal for the Victims of flooding in the Omo River Valley, Ethiopia

The recent devastating flood that affected SouthernEthiopia followed the catastrophic flooding in DireDawa that claimed the lives of 260 people. Theflooding in the Omo River Valley is part of anationwide crisis following the unusually intense andcontinuous rainfall that has resulted in flashflooding and overflowing of rivers. The heavy rainsthat washed the central plateau and highlands ofSouthwest Ethiopia forced the backing of water fromLake Turkana (Lake Rudolf), a lake without an outletthat receives most of its water from the Omo River.This forced the river to leave its banks and wash awaythe people and their livelihoods. By any account,this area is one of the worst affected by theprevailing floods in Ethiopia. According to theelderly and local officials, the rain and the OmoRiver have never been so hostile to the people ofGeleb and Bume as they have been this past August whenthe deluge raised the death toll to nearly 400 andmarooned over tens of thousands of people. There are confirmed reports that flooding in SouthernOmo has claimed the lives of about 400 residentsmainly in the Dassenach (Galeb) and Nyangtaom (Bume)woredas (administrative subdistricts) of the South Omozone, and has displaced approximately 10,000 peopleand washed away more than 3000 livestock and 800traditional grain stores (silos). The affected area isin the isolated delta of the Omo River in bothDassenach and Nyangataom woredas, about 800 km awayfrom the capital, Addis Ababa. Around 14 villages inthese two woredas are flooded and isolated from eachother by the water. The flood has destroyed largeareas covered by crops and much of the pastureland.

In some places the flood completely immersed a villageand killed all the residents. No survivor came out. Itis heart-breaking to learn that dead bodies could notbe found in some places because the river has takenthem down to Lake Turkana. As more information isobtained from the remote villages now encircled byfloodwaters, the level of casualties is expected to beeven higher. There are still gaps in the search andrescue mission; much of the affected populations havebeen stranded by the floodwaters because of thecontinued rainfall and the absence of enablinginfrastructure. The water level is continuing torise, increasing the population at risk andexacerbating the humanitarian crises.

Ethiopians abroad and the international community andhave on many occasions assisted Ethiopian victims ofnatural and man made calamities. In the spirit of thistradition, we appeal to all Ethiopians and others tohelp the Dassenach and Nyangataom people affectedmassively by the continued flooding that has claimedmany lives and caused immense property damage.

A team, Committee for the Rehabilitation of FloodVictims of Southern Omo has been established tocoordinate the assistance efforts to the victims offlooding in South Omo. This committee is establishedunder the auspices of the Southern Advancement SupportOrganization Inc., a certified and legally operatingnonprofit organization. The Committee for theRehabilitation of Flood Victims of Southern Omo willdo its share of increasing the awareness of theinternational community and Ethiopians abroad aboutthe gravity of the humanitarian crises in South Omo,and will coordinate the collection of funds foremergency aid (food, shelter, medical care) andrehabilitation. We have opened an account at SunTrustBank (account # 1000043166833 and routing # 061000104) for this effort. We plead to you to pledge money tothis effort and deposit or transfer your contributionsto this account. The Committee for the Rehabilitation of Flood Victimsof Southern Omo will continue to inform the public andhumanitarian agencies about the immediate needs forand the required assistance to the flood victims inSouth Omo. Please address any questions or suggestionsyou may have to the Committee at Galebumefund@yahoo.com.

Committee for the Rehabilitation of Flood Victims of Southern Omo
September 7, 2006

New Year Message from Kality Prison

Please click here to read a New Year message from the unjustly imprisoned Kinijit leadership in Kality prison in Ethiopia.

Happy New Year (1999!) to our readers in Ethiopia!

Statement II of the Renewal Committee

Please click here to read a statement by the North America SEPDC Renewal Committee on Prof. Beyene Petros' frivolous attempt to explain away his betrayal of the people's trust.

End of Blockade?

By Fikru Helebo

Since earlier this summer the Ethiopian government has been blocking most web sites and blogs (this one included) that are critical of it. Apparently that blockade is over, at least for now, as you can see from the graph below for the countries of the last 100 visitors to Enset blog from today and as confirmed by a recent posting on Seminaworq, a blog run from within Ethiopia.



The response from the Ethiopian blogosphere to the blockade was to educate Ethiopians at home on ways to bypass the blockade and to put a "Do Not Enter" sign in a prominent place on the blocked web sites and blogs to publicize the government's futile attemt to suppress the free exchange of information and ideas. The blockade lasted for about three months, and in the end the government blinked. To my knowledge, no blogger or webmaster has bothered to change the internet domain they are running on. Anyhow, the government could have easily added the newer domain names to its list of blocked URLs just as it did with the current ones, and it would have been a waste of time to change a domain name because of the blockade.

Why the Addis Ababa regime decided to unblock the web sites is anyone's guess. But it seems to me that the government probably decided that the criticism it has been getting from the donor community for its continued blocking of these web sites got to a point beyond which it could not defend its actions. I have a feeling that a lot of folks from the donor community in Addis peruse these blocked web sites and blogs to gauge the temperature of the Ethiopian political scene and they probably did not like being inconvenienced in accessing these web sites and blogs.

As important as these web sites and blogs may be in the evolution of freedom of expression in the Ethiopian political culture, their importance pales in comparison with the role that was played by the independent newspapers and magazines that are now silenced by the regime in power. The Addis Ababa regime must realize that the road it has chosen in the aftermath of the May 2005 elections is a dead end one and it will never be able to silence the Ethiopian people by continuing to jail journalists who criticize it. Therefore, it should release all journalists and the thousands of political prisoners it currently holds in its rotten jails immediately and without any preconditions.

In any case, I welcome the government's action to unblock these web sites and blogs. However, the "Do Not Enter" sign on this blog will remain until such a time that the lifting of the blockade is widely acknowledged as not being a temporary measure on the part of the regime.

An Open Letter to Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweis

By Liban Ahmad

I am writing this open letter to you in the hope of adding my voice the many Somalis who shared ideas with you so as not to see the efforts of the United Islamic Courts of Somalia become an exercise in futility, and your personality a byword for demagoguery.

I believe that successive Somali governments (former Transitional Somali Government and current the Transitional Federal Government) failed to address the question about Somalis whose names are included in the suspected terrorist list of several countries. My unease over our selected leaders' approach to the question stemmed from the fact that failed states like Somalia has no time to harbour terrorists. Foreign countries want reassurance that Somali citizens are not involved in terrorism. That is partly the job of any Somali government.

You are a Somali citizen and a political and religious leader as well. Like it or loathe it, your actions and judgement will have ramifications for national reconciliation.

You were quoted as saying that the Islamic courts will go the southern parts of Galkacyo "because people from that town want the courts there." If the quoted words are yours, I doubt you are acting out of your Muslim heart; you may be acting out of your tribal heart. Reason: your actions may destroy the 13 year old agreement that led to peaceful coexistence in Galkacyo. Damages may outweigh benefits. You will be remembered for failing to understand what the late General Mohamed Farah Aideed and President Abdullahi Yusuf had understood: that they have obligation to work towards peace in Galkacyo.

You have an obligation to rein in any members from Southern Galkacyo who might be carried away by the UIC's swift victory over warlords. Failure to do that will mean you are sanctioning clan warfare. A sense of history can be of help to you. And remember that "the study of history is a powerful antidote to contemporary arrogance."

Remember that the name you use -Islamic Courts- always gives wrong impression: Somalia has never lived under an Islamic state nor did it have an effective central government for the past fifteen years. How can a religion and clan based group administer justice when courts are known by clan names? The court of Sacad, The court of Abgaal, The court of Sheekhaal, the Court of Raxanweyn, the Court of Marehan etc, etc? Do you think that Islamic state will thrive if one adopts grassroots approach that empowers every clan to become a state within a state? Have you forgotten the countless Somalis who were killed or maimed on the basis of the clan they belonged to? How can justice be done under an unjust designation?

The United Islamic Courts of Somalia are a new force that still has the potential to contribute to Somalia's future positively. The UIC's foreign policy is quite discouraging. What benefit will Somalis gain if our energy that can be channelled to nation building and national recovery is directed towards antagonising neighbouring countries to achieve personal aspirations?

Whose task is it to formulate foreign policy? The Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) or the United Islamic Courts of Somalia? Already the presence of United Islamic Courts have affected the relation within The TFG troika-Parliamentary Speaker Shariif, President Yusuf and Prime Minister Geeddi. This is not a small feat. It shows that the TFG is ready for power-sharing. The Transitional Parliament has one virtue: it is pyre of personal ambition aimed at serving clan interests. Every top politician can be challenged. MPs may be fractious but they debate issues candidly.


Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweis: Misguided or Pious?

As a Sheikh you have obligation towards Allah and towards people who regard you as an example to follow. Avoiding any unprovoked action or any move that may have adverse consequences for Somali clan relations ought to be uppermost in your mind. Why so keen on opening a questionable court in a part of Somalia that has benefited from self-rule, that has not been blighted by warlords? Don't you think that such actions can create major disagreement on governance for Somalis in the future? Do you want Somalia to become like countries that instituted Sharia law in some parts while other parts use secular laws? Why so keen on being regarded as Amiir Muminiin in Somalia when your words and actions polarise people who have coexisted peacefully? Remember that religious innovation is a sin in Islam. Why do you combine elements of Jahiliya with basic Islamic precepts?

Many people have raised questions about Hargeisa based Court's desire to see you in court so you can answer questions about your alleged role in the murder of expatriates in 'Somaliland'. Do you think those people will be on your side if you choose to become a DEMAGOUGE?

You blame members of the TFG for being pro-Ethiopia whereas your actions seem to be endangering peaceful coexistence on which Somalis agreed without the help of any foreign country! Can't you see the contradiction in your words and actions?

May I anticipate that wisdom and foresight prevails in Somalia.

The Dilemma Facing Somalis

By Fikru Helebo

Imagine that you are a Somali expatriate living in North America or Europe and that you are hearing the good news that has been coming out of Somalia in the last couple of months, the good news that for the first time since 1991, when rival warlords who overthrew the Barre regime made most of southern Somalia ungovernable, life in the capital city of Mogadishu is getting better under the rule of the Islamic Courts Union, now renamed the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC). And then imagine hearing that this group that has brought much needed stability to a significant portion of southern Somalia is beginning to impose a strict form of Sharia law that is reminiscent of Afghanistan under Taliban rule.

If you are a Somali watching events unfold from afar, what would you do? Should you give the benefit of the doubt to SICC in the hope that it will institute a benign form of Islamic government in the areas it controls, or support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia that is recognized by the international community but has very little authority in Somalia itself? This is the dilemma that a lot of Somalis are wrestling with these days, as it is evident from the plethora of articles that Somali expatriates are writing about current events in their homeland. Here below are some samples:

"Another Afghanistan Could Be Averted"
By Abdifatah Ismail (South Africa)

"Actions and inactions by Western governments contribute to the current events in Somalia"
By Mohamed Mukhtar Ibrahim (United Kingdom)

"The Struggle for Somalia: Warlords, Islamists, US Global Militarism and Women"
A Somali Woman Discusses the Sharia Court and Her Cousin Who Leads It
By Amina Mire (Canada)

"Why Ethiopia-bashing Is Not The Right Option For The United Islamic Courts Of Somalia"
By Liban Ahmad (United Kingdom)

It is sad to see the circumstances that the Somali people had to endure in the last 15 years, and there is no question that interference by foreigners, including Ethiopians, in Somali internal affairs has contributed significantly to the failure of the Somali state and the many attempts to reconstitute it. However, the main obstacle to reconstituting a central government in Somalia remains the unhealthy premium that the Somali society places on its clans, which only the Somalis themselves can remove.

Comparing Mogadishu's current Islamist rulers to the Taliban may be a bit of a stretch at this point. However, there is an eerie similarity between the route the two groups took in their rise to power -- both of them offered an Islamic fundamentalist ideology, radical political Islam, as an antidote to the lawlessness and chaos that ravaged their respective countries. This similarity coupled with the recent history of radical political Islam in inspiring terrorism and suppressing basic human rights is a very good reason to be alarmed about the rise of the Islamists in Somalia. Ethiopia, Somalia's neighbor and rival, with an estimated Muslim population of at least 30 million of which 4 million are ethnic Somalis, can not afford to have a radical political Islam take root in its backyard. Neither does Somalia!

Neighboring Somalia in the Spotlight

By Fikru Helebo

Fast moving events of the last three months in neighboring Somalia have overshadowed the more than a year long political crisis in Ethiopia causing the international community to divert its attention to developments in Somalia. The quick ascendancy to power in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a group affiliated with a terrorist group called al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI), has alarmed many in the international community, including countries in the Horn of Africa region.

The ICU, buoyed by a string of military successes it has scored against a group of Somali warlords, who raised suspicion by calling themselves the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), and the support they have garnered from Somalis for bringing about a semblance of law and order to the Somali capital in a long time, is talking seriously about establishing an Islamic state in Somalia. The rise of the ICU, which is led by a fundamentalist Muslim named Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a former leader of the AIAI and a person listed by the U.S. State Department as a suspected al Qaeda collaborator, should be a cause for concern for the people of the Horn of Africa and beyond.

The ICU has the backing of Issayas Afeworki, the strongman of Eritrea, and some nations in the Arab and the Muslim world. Its main protagonist, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, which is based in the regional town of Baidoa, is backed by the terrorist regime that is in charge of Ethiopia. The Meles regime in Addis Ababa has publicly stated that it has the responsibility to defend the TFG. Who gave the Addis Ababa regime the responsibility to defend the government of another country is not yet clear, but the regime has already demonstrated that it means business by sending in troops into Somalia.

The United States may have unwittingly helped in propelling the ICU to power in Mogadishu by secretly financing the so-called ‘anti-terrorist’ Somali coalition of warlords, the ARPCT. The ICU skillfully used the revelation that the ARPCT was funded by Washington to coalesce Somali public support for its goals. The ARPCT may have been put together by the Addis Ababa regime, in part, because it was eager to prove to Washington that it is an indispensable ally in the global fight against terrorism in the post-9/11 world. It is also very likely that the Addis Ababa regime made a calculated decision to create a scene in Somalia to deflect attention from its domestic troubles. Recognizing these trends a group of former senior U.S. diplomats have advised Washington to back moderates within the ICU and discourage the Meles regime from using force in Somalia.

The ICU deserves some credit for bringing about a semblance of stability to parts of Somalia. However, it appears that this short-term stability for parts of Somalia may be coming at the expense of the long-term stability for the Horn of Africa region, if a fundamentalist religious group, like the ICU, is allowed to take root and form a government in Mogadishu. Therefore, it was a wise decision to put a stop to ICU's advance on Baidoa, the seat of the TFG, on the part of Washington and Addis Ababa.

Washington is still smarting from the ARPCT fiasco and attempting to regain its leverage in the region by criticizing the regimes in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This is a good thing, but it leaves much to be desired on the part of US Africa policy makers. Washington needs to learn that depending too much on tyrannical regimes, such as the regime in Addis Ababa, to advance its interests in the region is not the best way to advance US interests in the region and the interest of peace and stability in the Horn of Africa region in the long term.

The situation on the ground in southern Somalia is fluid and favors the ICU at this moment. Washington and the Addis Ababa regime need to recognize that the ICU is seen by most Somalis as a stabilizing force. Any future move against the ICU must be done in consultation with a diverse group of Somalis and the governments of the region, particularly Kenya, and the international community. The predicament that Somalis find themselves in is difficult for most outsiders to understand, but they are all human beings like all of us and need to be dealt with in a dignified way. That said, however, unless cooler heads prevail in Mogadishu and Baidoa, there a real possibility that a full-fledged war might break out between the ICU and the TFG backed by their foreign sponsors, and this does not bode well for peace in Somalia and the Horn of Africa region.

[Click here for PDF version]

Peace in the Middle East

"Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us." -Golda Meir, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Glory and guilt, living in the shadow of yesterday

By Ephrem Madebo

Towards the end of May 2006, an old cause received a new twist when political operatives from CUDP, EPPF, and three liberation fronts launched a campaign to create a political entity that has the potential to change the course of history in Ethiopia. The effort, dubbed Alliance for Freedom and Democracy, aims to embrace all opposition forces and seeks solutions for the seemingly intractable century old problems of Ethiopia. Social injustice, economic inequality, and political instability have relegated many Ethiopians from subsistence living to a street side begging. In 1974, the regime of emperor Haile Selassie was brought down by young military offices who promised economic development. In 1991, the military regime it self was toppled by a small group of Leninist revolutionaries who promised to close Ethiopia’s dark history. Instead of bringing hope and progress, the two successive governments exposed Ethiopia to a new set of problems. Today, Ethiopians are repeatedly being told to either support EPRDF, or face a Rwanda like genocide. The Alliance for Freedom and Democracy came to the Ethiopian political scene at this critical time when our people as a nations are forced to choose an option from the devil’s alternative.

In the last twenty years, Ethiopia has seen the come and go of many political parties and alliances. The promising start of alliances and political parties was foiled and buried by the wicked act of people who constantly disregard the idea of others, and have no vision of their own. Evidently, the new initiative, the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy, faces immense hurdles because no new political alliance has established itself as a sustained force in Ethiopian politics since the emergence of organized political parties [ EPRP,MEISON] in the 1970s. However, AFD and many optimistic Ethiopians contend that the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy can succeed where others have failed largely because the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy embraces all organizations that have stake in the political process of Ethiopia, and the doors of AFD are wide open for political organizations who have the desire to work together.

If noting else, the formation of AFD has brought many alienated constituencies to the political assemblage of Ethiopians, and no matter how people judge AFD; the Alliance for Freedom Democracy has already opened a political door that will never be closed again. AFD is the first political entity to build a bridge between ethnic liberation fronts and political parties. Many critiques keep on asking - Why mix political parties [CUDP] and ethnic liberation fronts [OLF]? Personally, I don’t like to see ethnicity mixed with politics. Obviously, It is not our choice or decision to be what we are ethnically, but all our political engagements and party memberships are our conscious choices. Therefore, gravitating people towards ethnic based political system shouldn’t be our objective. However, as concerned Ethiopians, I believe, it is our individual and collective responsibility to embrace people and political organizations from all walk of life to solve the problem of our country. In the long run, the depth of our victory is not measured by replacing the Meles Zenawi regime, it is measured by the width of our tolerance to work with others who disagree with us. Our objective should be keeping the unity of Ethiopia and building a democratic society. Otherwise, when the right time comes, TPLF can always be replaced, but what good is replacing TPLF if we keep on going back to square one again and again?

So far, the arrival of AFD is received with mixed feelings. There are some whose constructive criticism is focused on the weak sides of AFD, and yet there are some who dismiss AFD as the instrument of OLF. In Ethiopia, political duality is a relatively new phenomena, and the culture of opposition politics is strange to many people. As a result, most of us have fallen victims to outright bigots who always disregard the idea of others and have no idea of their own. These nonsensical bigots pretend to be opponents of TPLF and exploit our innocence to look like our comrades. They seem to be innocuous, but they are deadly enemies; they seem to be visionary leaders, but they are indolent lunatics who pour water on the vision of others. We should be carful not to take the old Maoist principle that says "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" at its face value. We should all understand that TPLF is not the only entity that threatens the unity of Ethiopia, Ethiopia’s unity and rapid transition to democracy is threatened by many callous people inside and outside Ethiopia.

AFD is not a matured party of deliverance, it is the "ABC" of political unity in Ethiopia; it is not a monster to be watched from far, it is a growing organization to be embraced and nurtured. Some people are baffled by the presence of liberation fronts in the AFD, I am not. Political dialog with liberation fronts does not worry me much, what worries me is the future geo-political appearance of Ethiopia if we ignore and alienate OLF, SLF, and ONLF today. In Ethiopia, political and economic conflict between the haves and the have-nots, between the powerful and the helpless, and between the oppressed and the oppressors has been the way of life for many years. On one side there are liberation fronts whose primary option of conflict resolution is force, on the other side, there are pro-unity parties and organizations to whom dialogs and negotiations are the primary options of conflict resolution. if the pro-unity parties ignore the current good gesture of the liberation fronts and try to solve Ethiopia’s problem by themselves, the farm lands of Ethiopia will be war zones for generations to come. If the liberation fronts ignore the call for unity and use force to realize their dream, they keep on killing the hope of the very people they fight for. Disregarding dialogues and resorting to the use of gun might ensure a temporary political power, but it will never solve political differences or create peace and stability. So, how do we tackle the root causes of Ethiopia’s problem?

The answer to the above question depends upon our vision for Ethiopia. If we envision peace, stability, and prosperity for Ethiopia, then we must solve Ethiopia’s problem together with those who have the means and the tendency to warp peace and tranquility in Ethiopia. CUDP’s unprecedented and unparalleled political will to start a working relationship with the different liberation fronts is the beginning of a new era that deserves applaud and collaboration. Contrary to the claim of some myopic individuals, CUDP’s participation in AFD is not a political gamble, it is a conscious and wise political move that transcends the "only me" attitude and builds a bridge for people to come together. The doom tellers of yesterday keep on telling us not to expect a better tomorrow. In 2003, they strongly opposed the formation of UEDF. Two years latter, in 2005, they condemned CUD as a collection of WEP (Workers Party of Ethiopia). Today, these same doom tellers are crying foul and plotting in Washington, DC, London, and the capitals of the Scandinavian countries to kill AFD. These wicked messengers of death are hard to identify because they always come in the name of Ethiopia and they renounce TPLF just like we do. But, they always diminish ideas, dwarf concepts, and kill the hope we have for tomorrow. When ideas are killed new ideas may come, but when hope is killed it denies us the reason to live for tomorrow. We should all fight the doom tellers and keep the hope alive.

Today, we have a new idea, a new hope, and a new alliance. Let’s support this new alliance and transform it in to a grand coalition that embraces the democratic forces of Ethiopia. As a generation, let’s be remembered as courageous and relentless defenders of democracy. Let’s librate ourselves from mental slavery, and our nation from the brutal hands of Meles. Let’s be willing to die as heroes than living in a constant state of moral indebtedness. After all, we all die; let’s die as we give life to others.

A Drill for False Alarm, the Solitary Journey of UEDF

By Ephrem Madebo

In the last fifteen months the political reality of Ethiopia has constantly been changing. The dynamic emergence, fallout, and re-emergence of events have forced both the opposition and the TPLF to change their strategy and adopt to the daily changing political environment. In my opinion, all the major political parties have sensed the dynamics of the Ethiopian political situation, but none have paid due attention to the changing events like the OLF and TPLF.

Political victory is unthinkable in the absence of battle seasoned leaders and a proactive party leadership. I have a great respect and appreciation for CUDP, but with its entire leadership suffering in jail, the ability of CUDP to stay proactive in Ethiopia's fast paced political life is minimum. In fact, the recent creation of CUDP international leadership is a wonderful move that shows the political maturity of the CUDP leaders in keeping the party ahead of events. Evidently, the CUDP international leadership was created to align the party's strategy with the changing political conditions. With all due respect to UEDF, I do believe that UEDF is a reactive party that suffers from a self-inflected wound. UEDF proudly presents it self as a pioneer party that started a political dialog with OLF, yet the same UEDF blames OLF and CUDP for forming a forum for dialog. According to my understanding, the purpose of the OLF-UEDF dialog was to forge a unity. If so, why run away when the foundation for unity is laid down?

On Sunday June 25, 2006, I was one of the many people who ignored the formidable rain and flood of the Washington, DC area to attend the much awaited meeting called by UEDF. As eager as I was to hear UEDF's position [on AFD] from the mouth of the horse, I was shocked and simmered in total disbelief when I heard a poor unedited essay that lacked coherence and thesis statement. Most of the participants of the meeting challenged and questioned the solitary journey of UEDF and demanded reason for such an act, but instead of reason, the audience was given a sermon that black mailed and repeatedly accused CUDP. According to the sermon on Sunday, UEDF is the only party that cares for Ethiopia's unity and challenges the TPLF constitution.

Most of the six point contentions of UEDF are technical in nature and could have been solved in the AFD forum. In fact, the contentions were good reasons to join AFD, not to run away and cry like a child who spills his own food. My advice to UEDF: All the time that you spent analyzing the Ethiopian political problem is greatly appreciated, but no matter how devoted and how courageous you are in analyzing problems, your effort will not bear fruits unless you match your time of analysis with synthesis. Remember, both analysis and synthesis are group efforts. Please join the group and work together with CUDP, OLF, ONLF, EPPF, and SLF.

As we all know, for the good part of the past thirty years the OLF carried a secessionist slogan and distanced itself from most mainstream Ethiopian political parties. In the other side, most mainstream Ethiopian political parties treated OLF as an ordinary terrorist organization and made no attempt of political cooperation with this giant thirty three years old organization. As a result of this meaningless and cold standoff, the Ethiopian people journey to justice and democracy lost the synergy that could have come from the political co-operation of OLF. The historic May 2005 election refuted the use of force [Gun] to achieve political goals in Ethiopia and gave a nice lesson to the ubiquitous ethnic liberation fronts. To be honest, in May 2005, when most Ethiopians went to the ballot box, they knew less what the vision of the opposition really was, however, they voted for a start-up party in a larger proportion because they were dead sure that the alternative was evil and they were eager to see a peaceful transfer of power.

In May 2005, the majestic appearance of CUDP and its young visionary leaders captured the imagination of many Ethiopians. As a result many urban Ethiopians gave their vote to CUDP. In Ethiopia we don't have a rural urban political divide, therefore, it is odd to have a landslide victory in urban centers and a disproportionate loss in rural areas. Large urban centers like Addis Ababa, Awassa, Jimma, Nazereth, Bahar Dar, and Dire Dawa are places where true Ethiopian diversity is expressed. Why would Oromos that live in Addis Ababa and other urban areas vote for the Opposition, and those who live in the rural area vote for the EPRDF? It is the answer to this kind of statistical and sociological question that forced the OLF to reconsider its long standing and obsolete colonial question. In deed, in the last six months the political tone of the OLF has changed dramatically. High ranking OLF officials have started envisioning democracy and justice to the Oromo people in the context of a united Ethiopia. Here are recent excerpts from two OLF officials:

"The future is doomed only for those who fear equality, democracy and freedom, and for those who uphold and condone injustice, inequality and dictatorship. I say freedom now, equality now, democracy now for all peoples of Ethiopia, and Freedom and Democracy for all" Dr. Shigut Geleta, OLF Head of Foreign Relations in Europe

"If the international community and the others in Ethiopia are ready to be serious and to seriously look to resolve the complicated problems in Ethiopia, OLF is ready to be a leading partner in this change" Dawud Ibsa, OLF Chairman

For a long time OLF was obsessed with the creation of Oromia state while other political parties were tormented by every move of the OLF to make the state of Oromia a reality. In this destructive zero sum game where neither the OLF achieved its goal nor the pro-unity parties faced their fear, the only beneficiaries were the enemies of Ethiopia. Retrospectively speaking, the short lived pre-election democratic face of the TPLF regime was a tantalizing empty promise. Currently, we as a society are so close to freedom and democracy, but we are guarded afar by TPLF from concretely holding to it. There is no question that TPLF is a voracious predator, but in the face of a united opposition, TPLF is not a formidable enemy. Our dreadful enemy is our inability to unite.

Ethiopia finds it self at a time where the unity of the opposition parties is a necessity, not a choice. Our nation is at the verge of disintegration; if Meles realizes his diabolic dream, the OLF would have no Oromia to separate, CUDP would have no place to unite, and UEDF would have no country and constitution to brag about. UEDF, CUDP, and OLF should understand that they exist in the context of each other. Accepting and exploring the rich context of their differences does not imply defeat or loss. Nor does it mean surrendering their own intellectual, aesthetic, or moral perspective. It simply means that they gain a deeper and broader understanding of where their own views fit in with society. That, in turn, helps them to navigate society more effectively.

Article 39, AFD and the Oromo Liberation Front.

By Ephrem Madebo

The United States constitution was written almost six decades before Emperor Teodros II consolidated his authority and unified the Ethiopian empire. When George Washington became the president of the United states the Union has only 13 states. Between 1789 and 1959 thirty seven more states joined the union. Toady, there are fifty states in the union. What attracted the last 37 states to the Union? The answer is easy, it is the constitution. The US constitution grants equal freedom and justice to all. The farsighted founding fathers dreamed a larger, wider, and stronger America, hence, they wrote a constitution that attracted a human wave of immigrants. As a result, today, the United States of America is the sole superpower, the richest country, and the model of representative democracy.

Article four of the US constitution describes the relationship between the states and the Federal government, and amongst the states; it also has provisions for the creation and admission of new states. However, the US constitution never mentions the concept of self determination or secession. In fact, the Civil War would have reduced the Union in to many weaker countries had something similar to article 39 of the Ethiopian constitution was enshrined in the constitution of the Unites States. Why did the founding fathers who lived two centuries ago leave a blue print for a larger and richer America? Why did TPLF write a constitution that disintegrates one of the oldest country of the world? Why didn’t TPLF learn from the American experience and leave a blue print of unity to all of us and to Posterity?

Article 39 of the Ethiopian constitution states: Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.

OLF Mission Statment: The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) is a political organization established in 1973 by Oromo nationalists to lead the national liberation struggle of the Oromo people against the Abyssinian colonial rule. The emergence of the OLF was a culmination of a century old yearn of the Oromo people to have a strong and unified national organization to lead the struggle.

OLF Objective: The fundamental objective of the Oromo liberation movement is to exercise the Oromo peoples' inalienable right to national self-determination to terminate a century of oppression and exploitation, and to form, where possible, a political union with other nations on the basis of equality, respect for mutual interests and the principle of voluntary associations.

OLF Policy (taken from the OLF policy statement): The Oromo and other oppressed peoples are endowed with the right to decide the form of sovereignty they want, whether on their own or in a union with others on the basis of freely expressed consent of all concerned parties.

There is no question that many opposition parties, political organizations, civic organizations, and the Ethiopian people at large oppose article 39 of the constitution in its entirety. Article 39 explicitly endangers Ethiopia’s existence as a nation, and it is included in the constitution against the will of the Ethiopian people. The social and economic development of Ethiopia is highly dependent on the unity of the Ethiopian people, therefore, no Ethiopian would be happy to see an article in his/her constitution that could reduce the size, political, and economic importance of Ethiopia. With all due respect to the OLF as a major representative of the Oromo people, I don’t think that all Oromos agree on the separation of Oromia from the rest of Ethiopia.

A closer look to article 39 of the constitution clearly indicates the existence of a harmonious relationship between article 39 and the objective, policy, and mission of the Oromo Liberation Front. In fact, such a harmony is not a coincidence. In 1991, when EPRDF controlled Addis Ababa, and wrote the current constitution, OLF was part of the Transitional Government that ratified the constitution. As we all know, in the last twenty five years, the armed wing of the OLF was in action to separate Oromia from Ethiopia, therefore, as far as OLF is concerned, enshrining Article 39 in the constitution was a dream come true.

In 1991, when the two ethnic liberation fronts [OLF, TPLF] agreed to insert Article 39 in the constitution, the future of Ethiopia did not seem to be their cup of tea. I don’t even think the two liberation fronts deeply thought about the long term economic and social development of the Oromo and the Tigray people. As a member of one of the neglected nationalities of the south, I do share the pain of the Oromo people, but nothing happened to the Oromo people that did not happen to the people of my nationality. I’m a person who believes that the OLF should lead the Oromo people to a lasting victory. But, victory over what? In my opinion, victory to my nationality is victory to the Oromo people, and the vice versa.

If the Ethiopian opposition is capable of creating a political and social order that guarantees freedom, equal justice for all, and equitable wealth distribution, what is the value of creating a weaker independent states of Tigray, Oromia, Ogaden or Sidama? What people want is freedom and democracy, seceding from Ethiopia does not guarantee justice and democracy. The Eritreans fought for freedom, democracy, and justice. Today, fifteen years after independence, the fate of Eritreans is decided by a ruthless dictator Africa has never seen. Ethiopia, the very country that they vowed to never see again is a safe heaven to Eritrean dissenters and draft dodgers. It is amazing that a non-democratic Ethiopia is where Eritreans are looking for freedom.

In the last one month many articles have been written regarding the formation of AFD. Some have supported the alliance, some opposed it, and yet some others were too cautious to take a definitive stand. One of the most boisterous whimper regarding AFD was its nomenclature. Obviously, nomenclature is very important, however, nullifying the AFD at this stage because it lacks the word Ethiopia in its name is political immaturity. Let’s not forget that CUDP was a coalition of four parties, but it doesn’t have the name Ethiopia in it. Many writers have demanded the OLF to drop its secessionist policy, this is a valid demand, however, asking an organization to drop its 33 years objective overnight is being a little hasty and a little far from reality. At this juncture the ability of the opposition to create an alliance that embraces parties of diametrically opposing objectives is a victory by itself. Now the primary and the most difficult part of the task has been accomplished.

In its next several steps, the alliance should attract other parties and avoid contradicting objectives of member parties through extended dialogues. We should all understand that AFD might not at all solve Ethiopia’s problem, but it has opened a forum that was non-existent in Ethiopia. In the history of the Ethiopian opposition, the Oromo Liberation Front has agreed to work together with parties that strongly advocate Ethiopia’s unity. Now the ball is in the court of CUDP and other pro-unity parties. The ultimate goal of the liberation organizations [OLF,SLF, ONLF] and the pro-unity parties is identical. They all strive to lead their respective constituencies towards peace, democracy, and prosperity. The major difference between the parties is the tools they use and the path they travel towards their goal.

Is AFD capable of converging the different paths perused by the different parties? Yes, and It should, because preserving Ethiopia as it is, or the status quo is a Win- Lose game, reducing Ethiopia in to multiple small states is a Lose-Win game. Granting democracy, justice, and economic prosperity to all Ethiopians is a Win-Win game. Selecting a winning strategy for any particular party is easy. However, one doesn’t come to an alliance to play individual game. An alliance is a place where every party comes to win, and it is also a place where every party plays a fair game so that others win. To be specific, when trust develops between and within the parties, and when AFD fully matures, no individual party should have a reason to change its behavior given the choices of all other parties.

It is apparent that most Ethiopians expect the AFD to solve the age old political problem of Ethiopia, but make no mistake, the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy has the potential to harm Ethiopia by being the instrument of another brand of ethino- nationalists. The OLF is composed of people who strongly believe in unity and solve the Oromo problem within the framework of greater Ethiopia. Of course, there is another radical group that advocates separation. Currently, the AFD is packed with secessionist forces, pro-unity parties, and by some who can go either way. What should CUDP and other pro-unity parties do and not do to convince OLF change or avoid its secessionist policy? What should the OLF do and not do to earn the trust of the pro-unity parties? The success or failure of the AFD depends upon who plays smart in this game of give and take.

CUPD has repeatedly showed its unwavering stand on Ethiopia’s unity. In its recent and past press releases, we have clearly seen UEDF’s unflinching stand of unity. Now it is about time that these two vanguard parties stop their verbal war and show us their maturity by integrating their political program in to a common work plan. UEDF should reconsider its current stand. The process of how AFD handles the complex problems of Ethiopia can be redesigned, and in the real world a political process is redesigned by the people inside, not out side. My most important message to UEDF and CUDP is that they should both keep their eyes on TPLF, not on each other.

Ethiopia has been a mother to some and a step mother to others. Many nationalities of Ethiopia who once governed themselves were denied political power, economic freedom, and social justice by the four consecutive regimes that took power in Ethiopia between 1889 and 2006. The political, social, and economic problems of the past 117 years did not come from living together as a nation, and will never be solved by breaking the unity of Ethiopia. When the Chinese foresee our tremendous market potential and invest in billions, working hard to reduce ourselves in to minuscule local markets is a disgrace and an out and out blindness. The instinct of people is to live together and cherish the fruits of democracy and economic prosperity, therefore, one does not librate people from people. Today, we have a government that uses constitutional power to create and enforce public policies that advance the objectives of the Tigray elite. TPLF is the common enemy of the people, the Ethiopian people should be liberated form TPLF, not from each other.

The OLF, the SLF, and the ONLF should understand that the strength of the Oromo, the Sidama, and the Somali people comes from living together with the Amharas, Tigreans, Sidamas and Walaytas etc. The Oromo or the Sidama problem is not and has never been a colonial problem. Any attempt to solve the Oromo problem in the framework of colonialism is tantamount to treating a malaria patient with chemotherapy. To reiterate my point, uneven distribution of wealth, political domination, and social injustice have always been the root causes of Ethiopia’s problem. We can solve our problems only if we manage to handle the root causes of the problem. We have already identified and analyzed our problem, now it is time to look for a set of solutions. Remember, too much analysis is paralysis.

D. Yamamoto and His "Positive Talks" with the Ethiopian Government

By Ephrem Madebo

At the End of May 2006,Donald Yamamoto, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs paid a working visit to four African countries including Ethiopia. In his trip to Ethiopia, the Assistant Secretary focused on political and economic reforms in Ethiopia, and the border dispute between the two poverty stricken nations of Africa, Ethiopia and Eritrea. The Deputy Assistant Secretary described the current political situation in Ethiopia as "It remains ongoing"; and he said: "We’ve had some successes and areas that we haven’t made enough progress on".

It is perplexing that Mr. Yamamoto acknowledges TPLF’s mysterious handover of the administration of Addis Ababa to political appointees, but the Assistant Secretary reduces this important issue to a simple disagreement between EPRDF and the opposition, moreover, Mr. Yamamoto failed to point out the specifics of his country’s position on the solution to this grave problem. In his most recent trip to Addis Ababa, Mr. Yamamoto did not pressure the Ethiopian government to free the jailed opposition leaders and transfer the administration of Addis Ababa to elected officials. As an Ethiopian American tax payer, may I ask the Deputy Assistant Secretary why he used my tax money to go to my native country? Every thing he said and every example he used in the interview was an old public knowledge, I expected the Secretary to use this knowledge to pressure the Ethiopian government to free the leaders that my mother and father elected.

On issues of introducing political reform in Ethiopia, here is what Mr. Yamamoto said: "We continue to work though on the positive side, which is with other countries such as UK, India, Germany, on the political reform and how the Parliament is to operate. We’re working on media law and media in general, and hopefully that these could help with the process of political reform. But we have a long way to go and many issues to tackle" It is absolutely important to learn form the experience of democratic countries, but is it possible to solve the political problem of Ethiopia with UK, USA, Germany, and India on one side and TPLF on the other side? Where is the participation of the entire Ethiopian opposition? Mr. Secretary, how can you introduce political reform and improve the operation of the parliament in a multi party country where MPs and opposition party leaders are in jail?

Regarding the detention of the opposition leaders, this is what Donald Yamamoto said: "The official position of the United States is for the release of the detainees, period" In a follow-up statement the secretary said: "I’ve visited the detainees and had great discussions with them. In some cases, they are able to hear the Voice of America, so the Voice of America is critical, very important, to gain information in Ethiopia" In the long run, I would definitely be happy if I am allowed to know the un-official position of the US regarding the detention of Ethiopia’s political leaders, if there is at all such a thing as un-official position. Currently, the US is not showing any sign of pushing or guiding the Ethiopian rulers towards where it believes is the right direction. Mr. Yamamoto, thank you for the visit you paid to the prisoners of conscience, but what is good if the prisoners hear the voice of America(VOA), but not the voice of the American government? You said the official position of the US government is for the release of the prisoners, if so, why doesn’t the US government put its money where its mouth is?

Any political analyst that reads the transcript of Donald Yamamoto’s interview can see that the United States is trying to appease both the opposition and the TPLF regime. In the past the United States has used its political and economic muscle to force totalitarian regimes to release political prisoners. I guess we all know the difference between "releasing prisoners" and "speedy trial". What is the demand of the United States of America? Is it releasing the prisoners, or speedy trial? The irony is that on one side, no matter what the demand of the US government is, the Ethiopian government is not showing any sign of releasing the prisoners or granting them speedy trial. On the other side, no matter what the Ethiopian government does the US is quietly watching. In a diplomatic language such quietness is nothing, but approval or an invisible nod for acknowledgment.

Another important question presented to Donald Yamamoto was- Is reconciliation possible with virtually the entire leadership of the largest opposition party in prison? Ambassador Yamamoto’s reply to the above question was: "The Ethiopian government’s position is that they committed a crime and that they need to go through the trial process. That’s their decision but we have argued that they should be released and take up their seats in Parliament" There are some important questions that need to be raised here - What is the official position of the US government regarding the political prisoners in Ethiopia? Is it to negotiate and/or put pressure on the Ethiopian government to release the political prisoners? Or is it demand for speedy trial? If the former is true, then the US government agrees on the innocence of the CUDP leaders. In this case, the US should use its political and economic power to grant an immediate and unconditional release of the CUDP leaders. If the latter is true, then the US has agreed on the fabricated charges of genocide and treason. The truth is that the opposition leaders are jailed for exercising their constitutional right of freely expressing their ideas, a right that all the citizens of the United States take for granted.

Currently, the Ethiopian people expect two things form the United States government. First, the US government should engage itself in helping the Ethiopian people build a democratic system. The US shouldn’t support an outrageous dictator just because the dictator promises to fight terrorism. Terrorism is the enemy of democracy, as long as the Ethiopian people do not enjoy their God given democratic right, there will always be an open door that allows in the elements of terror no matter what the Ethiopian government does. It is important to prevent the symptoms of terrorism than trying to fight a fully blown terrorism. Second, we Ethiopians don’t expect the Americans or any country to build a democratic system in Ethiopia. The building it self should be left for Ethiopians, however, the US and other donor countries should make sure that the aid fund that flows to Ethiopia advances the principles of the democratic process, the Ethiopian people should be the direct beneficiaries of aid fund, not few elites! The US should learn from the mistakes it made in Chile, in the Mobutu era Zaire, and in the Apartheid era South Africa.