Musings on the Rule of Law (and funny stories from China)

Katrina Retrospective: 5 Years After the Storm

The more humans try to control nature, the more they will be surprised by the force that is behind nature. Katrina is a great example of this.

February Sea - George Winston

George Winston is one of my favorite musicians. This song is my favorite of all his compositions, so much so that I used it as one of the song choices for my wedding. This kid does a great job playing the song. Enjoy!

Opposition candidate wins presidential vote in Somaliland

Somalilanders went to the polls on 26th of June and elected an opposition party candidate, Ahmed Mohamud Silanyo of the Kulmiye party, to be their next president. The incumbent president, Dahir Riyale Kahin, which came in a distant second, has promised to honor the result.

If this comes to fruition and Mr. Kahin hands the reigns of power to Mr. Silanyo, then we are at the cusp of witnessing history being made in the Horn of Africa, namely the first peaceful transfer of power from a ruling party to an opposition party. What a tremendous accomplishment for Somaliland this could turn out to be!

This golden opportunity to put Somaliland in the spotlight could be a waisted opportunity if Mr. Silanyo fails to deliver. I hope he will listen to voices such as Soyan Guled's and other moderate voices, and I wish him best of luck -- he needs all the luck he can get in that dangerous corner of the world.

On a sour note, the Woyane regime that did all it can under the sun to prevent the Ethiopian people from freely expressing their hopes and wishes in the election held just six weeks ago has sent its praise for the outgoing president, Mr. Kahin, for "his high sense of obligation to the people of Somaliland." Strange, isn't it?

Proud of Team USA

Update: I was disappointed with the US team's performance yesterday against Ghana, but I am still proud of the team's performance as a whole in the 2010 World Cup. I want Bob Bradley to continue in his head coaching job, but only if he is going to give younger and promising players more chances to prove themselves in meaningful games.

USA 1 : England 1

Can I have that one back? No, thank you very much!!!

Advice to the opposition

I hope the Ethiopian opposition leaders will heed and act on these sound advices.

Eskinder Nega

Addressing the immediate challenges:

Now is the time for the legal opposition to address the challenges it faces, exploit the political opportunities, and isolate the hazards that need to be shunned. Sadly, so far, avoiding the hazards seems to loom larger than addressing the challenges and exploiting the opportunities. And perhaps the role of the Shimagles (elders) -- who are shuttling between Meles and opposition leaders -- is influencing the course of events. But this may be a fatal error for an opposition facing an existential threat. Certainly, imprisonment must not be avoided at the expense of relegation to permanent irrelevance.

Ayal-Sew Dessye

The ball once again is in the opposition's court:

As egregious as the conduct of the elections and as unacceptable as the results are, this undeclared calculated risk by the Meles regime could be, I believe, an opportunity for the opposition. Election 2010 has disrobed this regime's leaders and shown their naked self to the whole world. They can no longer continue to pretend to be, as they say, "building democracy" or claim that the country is an "emerging democracy", etc. The results announced by the regime have clearly shown to what illegitimate and shameful extent EPRDF leaders could go to stay in power. Only under totalitarian regimes of the bygone era could there be such an outrageous and indefensible outcome in any election.

Nonetheless, I believe that there is no better environment and a better time than now for the opposition to reinvent itself and make a badly needed paradigm shift. But this is not a time to rush things through and engage in self-serving and short-sighted endeavors. It would be prudent to take enough time to reflect on the whole, self examine, reassess the situation, regroup and reorganize as a national (country-wide) force, chart a new course with comprehensive and clear strategy, and embark on a united and decisive struggle to do away with tyranny once and for all. Priority should be given to encourage and help those inside the country. They need to be assisted to stay afloat and function as much as they could.

Alemayehu G. Mariam

Give Young People a Chance to Lead:

The older generation in the opposition needs to learn to get out of the way. Let's give the younger generation a chance to lead. After all, it is their future. We can be most useful if we help them learn from our mistakes and guide them to greater heights. Zenawi thinks he can mold the young people in his image so that he can establish a Reich that will last a thousand years. He will never succeed. If there is one thing universally true about young people, it is that they love freedom more than anything else. Let the older generation be water carriers for the young people who will be building the "future country of Ethiopia," as Birtukan would say.

Think Like Winners, Not Victims:

Victory is not what it seems for the victors, and defeat is not what it feels for the vanquished. There is defeat in victory and victory in defeat. Both victory and defeat are first and foremost states of mind. Those who won the election by a margin of 99.6 percent project an image of being victorious. But we know they have an empty victory secured by force and fraud. The real question is whether the opposition sees itself as winners or losers. Winners think and act as winners, likewise for losers.

Best wishes to US MNT

Cheering for the US men's national team at the World Cup in South Africa is one of the few things I agree with Obama. Just two weeks to go before the World Cup. Go USA!

We know who we voted for!

Don't mess with our Dear Leader! He is the one who will get us [not Ethiopia] out of poverty.

The US Spate Department is clearly acquiescing to Woyane's "overwhelming victory" as its tepid statement on the "elections" indicates. They've also said, with a straight face, that they are not surprised by the results. Message to opposition supporters: Get over it! Strange as it may seem, I agree because the opposition camp, from A to Z, was complicit in giving legitimacy to the election.

US criticizes Ethiopian Election

U.S. says Ethiopa vote not up to international standards

"While the elections were calm and peaceful and largely without any kind of violence, we note with some degree of remorse that the elections there were not up to international standards," Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson told a House of Representatives panel.

Some degree of remorse...really?

"It is important that Ethiopia move forward in strengthening its democratic institutions and when elections are held that it level the playing field to give everyone a free opportunity to participate without fear or favor," Carson said.

Blah, blah, blah...

Mr. Carson: I do not think even yourself expect Ethiopians to take your comments seriously. Do you? After reading your writings in Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, I had predicted that this kind of low key reaction is what Ethiopians should be expecting from the US after an election that the US knows to be not free and fair. Be honest and tell Ethiopians to stop looking to Washington for any kind of help in their quest for freedom.

Ethiopians: Let's be honest to ourselves: this election should have been boycotted. But this is now a mute point. Let's put this election debacle behind us as quickly as possible. Let's invest in a younger generation of leaders, like Birtukan, while taking advantage of the wisdom and experience of some of the older generation leaders. Let's be realists and not given to simple emotions.

It's a landslide, make that super landslide!

Prayer for Birtukan

As we were preparing to say grace before eating breakfast this morning, I asked our five year old son if there is anything that he wants me to pray about. Without the slightest of hesitation, he said: "let's pray for Birtukan". And, so, I prayed to God to protect Birtukan from harm while she is in jail. May He sustain her spirit and also give her the strength to endure her separation from her daughter, Hale Mideksa. Amen.

ESAT interview with Beyene Petros

The brand new Ethiopian Satellite Television (ESAT) had a phone interview with Beyene Petros, the current chairman of Medrek, on today's "election". The crux of the interview is found at the 5:49 minute mark. That is where Beyene states that the election needs to be rerun based on a set of rules that all parties can agree to. He referred to Medrek's rejection of the Election Code of Conduct back in October to make this point. Duh, why bother to repeat that point now? Didn't Medrek participate in the "election" while fully knowing that it was going to be a total sham? Boycotting the election would have been the correct course of action for Medrek to take. Wasn't it? I am sure Beyene won't admit to this.



There is a funny bit at the end of this interview when the reporter attempts to reach Bereket Simon, the Woyane honcho. Bereket informs the reporter that he is hard at work.

Election quote #2

I thought I had already heard the best quote of the 2010 "election" courtesy of an old Oromo man last week. I was wrong. I think this gem from Hailu $hawel beats that one by a mile. He was quoted by VOA, just after participating in an election he absolutely knew would turn out to be a sham election, as saying:

"I am not participating in a ridiculous election. Never again."

Isn't it a bit too late to say this, Mr. $hawel? A job well done, Mr $hawel! You and Meles have really come to an understanding! You are a disgrace! I hope you will remain true to your word and quit politics.

Update (June 8): $hawel claims he was fooled (wink wink) by Woyane.

I'm Woyane, we all should be Woyane

I know what you are thinking. Now that I've got your attention, please allow me to explain what I meant by "I'm Woyane".

As you may be aware, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), a dialogue forum among the nine Nile riparian states (Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Sudan and Uganda) for a fair and mutually beneficial use of the Nile river has been going on since 1999. Other similar initiatives have preceded the NBI, but the NBI is the most sustained of these dialogues. It is mainly funded by the World Bank and other external donors.

After 11 years of hard negotiations, five of the nine states have agreed to a draft agreement called the Cooperative Framework Agreement. This agreement is the first major step before the establishment of a permanent Nile River Basin agreement. Two more countries, the DR Congo and Brundi, are expected to sign on to the agreement soon. The remaining two, Egypt and Sudan, are not happy with the draft agreement and have voiced their opposition.

Egypt, however, does not only object to the agreement, she is working very hard to derail the agreement in a last ditch attempt to maintain its obscene monopoly over the use of Nile's water. Here is Egypt's reaction to the signing of the draft agreement:

Responsibility for the Nile issue had been taken from the Irrigation and Foreign ministries and handed over to the National Security Authority headed by Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman when Egyptian diplomatic efforts against the new Nile basin treaty failed, news portal Masrawy reported Wednesday.

The reason for the handover is the inauguration of the Tana Beles hydropower station and dam in Ethiopia last Friday, the day a new treaty was signed by four Nile basin countries. Egypt insists that projects such as Tana Beles station need to be approved by it first....

Egypt has decided to freeze all forms of bilateral cooperation with the Nile basin countries that signed the agreement regarding river rights, Al-Shorouk newspaper reported Wednesday.

But all talk from the Egyptian side is not jingoistic. There are some realist Egyptians who recognize that clinging to an unjust 1959 colonial treaty which gives Egypt 87% of the Nile water is plain foolish:

Yet Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies researcher Nabil Abdel-Fatah had criticized the official approach, saying that the Egyptian response to Nile issue has been "slow and lacking in dynamism."

He added: "The Egyptian political and diplomatic structure still perceives Africa from a position of superiority; they still see it as the old Africa just after colonialism."

"Egypt must stop perceiving Africa in such a regressive way," he said, "And our dealings with Africa should be revised on a more equitable and developmental level."

When it comes to the equitable use of the waters of the Nile river basin, I believe all Ethiopians should support whatever regime is in charge of Ethiopia so long as that regime jealously guards Ethiopia's national interest. On this particular score, I am of the opinion that the Woyane regime is pursuing Ethiopia's national interest and I, as an avowed opponent of the regime, declare myself to be a Woyane.

Election quote

A question from a Reuters reporter prompted an old Oromo man to give the best quote of the 2010 Ethiopian "election":

They [Woyane] can build roads to the moon but I won't vote for them until we're equal.

Samantar v. Yousuf

Continuing on the theme of prisons from the last post, I read about a very interesting legal case, referred to as Samantar v. Yousuf, that is pending at the US Supreme Court that has to do with human rights abuses. The case was argued in early March and a decision is expected within the next few weeks.

The case was brought to court by Somali victims (the "respondents") of torture during the Barre regime from the 1980s. The respondents are attempting to bring to justice a former defence and prime minister of Somalia by the name of Mohamed Ali Samantar (the "petitioner") who now lives in the US. What the US Supreme Court is deciding now is whether or not the petitioner has immunity from suit under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA). If the Supreme Court decides in favor of the respondents, then Mr. Samantar can be taken to court to face justice.

From what I've read about the case, it was not convincingly argued by either side. But, to its credit, the Obama Administration has sided with the respondents, and that may help sway the court's opinion towards a loose interpretation of the FSIA. If this comes to fruition, then that will send a strong message to all human right abusers, like officials of the Woyane regime, that they may be held accountable to what they are doing to political prisoners as officials of the Ethiopian state. I am sure there are also some officials of the Derg regime who are nervously watching the Supreme Court's decision on this case.

Update (June 1st): US Supreme Court unanimously ruled that "the respondents" can sue the ex-Somali prime minister. Here is the decision.

Those Secret Prisons

This story from the BBC today about a US secret jail in Afghanistan reminded me of a similar story from April of 2007, which was reported by the late Anthony Mitchel, about secret jails in Ethiopia visited by CIA agents.

I was wondering if any of those jails are still operational and, if so, whether or not the CIA is still engaged in a similar scheme with the Ethiopian government. To be clear, I am strongly in favor of the CIA or any other US intelligence agency using all legal means at its disposal in the hunt for terrorists while, at the same time, I am also strongly against any branch of the US government coddling up with dictators anywhere in the world who terrorize their population, just like what the Ethiopian government does everyday.

In the context of the upcoming "election" in Ethiopia, it will be interesting to watch how the US government will react to an "election" that it knows is taking place in an atmosphere of intimidation and a severely restricted political space for the opposition.

Will the US turn a blind eye, once again, to the aspirations of Ethiopians to freely elect their leaders in exchange for the opportunity to interview a few third-rate terrorist wannabes? If it does, then Ethiopians' view of the role of the US government in their country's affairs will fundamentally change for the worse. This, in my humble opinion, will neither serve the interests of the US nor that of Ethiopia.

National Day of Prayer

Hunger Strike for Birtukan Mideksa

Thank you guys for what you are doing to publicize Birtukan's case. But will anyone in the Obama Administration listen?